The 2025-26 La Liga campaign has turned into a nightmare for Athletic Club, with the Basque side sinking to 18 defeats in 36 matches—a staggering 50% loss rate that has left them precariously close to the relegation zone. Manager Ernesto Valverde, a club legend, has already announced his departure at season's end, but the team's catastrophic form has amplified the sense of crisis. Even with two games remaining, safety is not mathematically guaranteed, and the once-unthinkable prospect of dropping into the second division looms over San Mamés. This is uncharted territory for a club that prides itself on top-flight consistency and a unique identity built around Basque talent.
Valverde's second spell in charge, which began in 2022, was meant to stabilize and push for European qualification. Instead, his final season has been the worst statistical performance of his tenure. The 44 points from 36 games represent a points-per-game average that would be the club's lowest in decades if it holds. To put it into perspective, Athletic have lost half their league fixtures—a record that under normal circumstances would see a club deeply embedded in the drop zone. Only a combination of favorable results elsewhere and a slightly better goal difference has kept their heads above water. Valverde himself acknowledged the gravity, noting that the team never adapted to the demands of the league and that despite previous glimmers of safety, the threat remains acute.
The immediate survival scenario is fraught with tension. Athletic's fate is now intertwined with that of their bitter Basque rivals, Real Sociedad. If Real Sociedad secures at least a point against Girona in their upcoming match, Athletic will be safe regardless of their own result against Celta Vigo on the final day. However, if Girona win, then Athletic must take something from that last fixture at San Mamés—a stadium that has witnessed an alarming number of defeats this season, including costly losses to Valencia and a previously winless-in-2026 Espanyol. The irony of relying on La Real for salvation is not lost on a fanbase that values local bragging rights above almost all else, but such is the desperation that pragmatism has overtaken pride.
The psychological toll on the squad is evident. Goalkeeper Unai Simón has publicly warned that if the team fails to add points, relegation is a real threat. The dressing room is in a state of nerves, unable to break the cycle of poor performances. As Valverde put it, the level of concern is 'extremely high,' and the feeling persists that even when you think you've hit bottom, you can still fall further. That sentiment captures the fear that even if the drop is avoided, the damage to the club's reputation and the players' confidence could take years to repair. The once-fortress atmosphere of San Mamés has evaporated, with the home crowd growing increasingly restless as each week brings new disappointment.
Amid the turmoil, the club has already charted a course for the future by appointing Edin Terzic as the new manager for the next two seasons. The German coach, formerly of Borussia Dortmund, was officially announced following Athletic's victory over Alavés on Matchday 34—a rare bright spot that now feels like a distant memory. Since that announcement, Terzic has witnessed only defeats, a stark introduction to the magnitude of the task ahead. He inherits a team that, by the time he takes the reins, could be either a La Liga side licking its wounds or, in the worst case, a Segunda División project in need of an immediate rebuild. His tactical acumen and man-management will be tested from day one, with the club's unique transfer policy—restricting signings to players from the Basque region—adding an extra layer of complexity.
While the primary focus is on survival, there remains a mathematical thread of hope for European qualification. With six points still to play for, Athletic trail Getafe by four points for the Conference League spot. Getafe, in turn, are just two points behind Celta Vigo, who are chasing Europa League football. However, Athletic's inferior head-to-head record against Getafe means they lose the tiebreaker, making the climb even steeper. For a European return to materialize, Athletic would need to win both remaining games and rely on multiple slip-ups from the teams above. Given the team's form—just one win in their last five—that scenario borders on fantasy.
The root causes of Athletic's decline are multifaceted. The squad has struggled to adapt tactically, with Valverde unable to find a consistent formula. Injuries have played a part, but deeper issues such as a lack of cutting edge in attack and defensive fragility have been persistent. The decision to part ways with Valverde, a coach who led them to Copa del Rey glory not long ago, was painful but reflected the board's belief that a new voice is needed. Yet, the timing of the announcement may have unsettled the players, creating an unintended vacuum of authority as Valverde sees out his final days in charge. The transition, meant to be smooth, has instead become a turbulent countdown.
For Terzic, the immediate priority is clear: steer the club to safety and then lay the groundwork for a competitive 2026-27 campaign. He must quickly assess which players fit his system and which can be moved on, all within the constraints of Athletic's transfer philosophy. The youth academy, Lezama, will be more critical than ever, as will the ability to extract maximum performance from experienced heads like Iñaki Williams, Oihan Sancet, and Unai Simón. Rebuilding confidence will be just as important as tactical adjustments. The new coach will also need to navigate the emotional weight of a fanbase that has endured a season of humiliation after years of relative pride.
Looking at the bigger picture, Athletic's struggles are a cautionary tale for clubs that rely exclusively on a limited talent pool. While the policy has been a source of identity and occasional success, it leaves no margin for error. When academy production dips or key players depart or age, the repercussions are immediate. This season has exposed the thin line between stability and crisis. Avoiding relegation would mean preserving their status as one of Spain's historic ever-present top-flight clubs—a record shared only with Real Madrid and Barcelona—but it would not erase the underlying issues. A thorough audit of the sporting project is overdue, and Terzic's appointment is just the first step.
As the final two matchdays approach, every training session and every minute on the pitch is laden with anxiety. Athletic's players must find the mental fortitude to perform under extreme pressure, something they have consistently failed to do this season. The scenario where Real Sociedad does them a favour is the most likely path to safety, but relying on your cross-town rival is a bitter pill to swallow. Should it come down to the Celta Vigo game, expect a white-hot atmosphere at San Mamés, driven by fear as much as passion. The stakes couldn't be higher: a club's 100-year top-flight history hangs in the balance.
Ultimately, the saga of Athletic Club's 2025-26 season will be remembered for the shocking scale of the collapse, the end of the Valverde era, and the uncertain dawn under Terzic. Whether the team stays up or goes down, the rebuilding job will be monumental. The hope is that the trauma of this campaign serves as a catalyst for a more modern, yet still faithfully Basque, approach. For now, all eyes are on the results from the Reale Arena and the final whistle at San Mamés. A club that once stood as a pillar of Spanish football now finds itself pleading for a reprieve, its fate not entirely in its own hands.
Based on reporting from Marca.