A fresh Quaest poll is mapping the regional landscape of voter rejection for the leading potential candidates in Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The survey, released on Wednesday, provides a detailed state-by-state breakdown of how President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are perceived, revealing clear geographic strongholds of opposition.
For the incumbent, President Lula of the PT, the numbers paint a challenging picture in the South and Central-West. His highest rejection rates are concentrated in Paraná, where 68% of voters say they would not vote for him, followed closely by Goiás at 66%. The states of Rio Grande do Sul and São Paulo also present significant hurdles, with rejection standing at 63% in both.
On the other side of the political spectrum, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL faces his own regional walls. The poll indicates his most formidable opposition is in the Northeast. He is rejected by 63% of voters in both Pernambuco and Bahia. The neighboring states of Ceará and Minas Gerais also show strong resistance, with rejection rates of 57% each.
The Quaest survey didn't just focus on the two front-runners. It tested the name recognition and rejection levels of several other potential contenders across ten states. These include Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo), Renan Santos (Missão), Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), and Augusto Cury (Avante). The data reveals a fascinating pattern: some candidates are virtually unknown outside their home states.
For instance, former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema is recognized by 91% of voters in his home state. However, that familiarity comes with a steep cost, as 53% of those who know him say they would not vote for him. Outside of Minas, Zema remains a mystery to the vast majority, with between 56% and 75% of respondents in other states saying they do not know him.
A similar, though more positive, dynamic is seen with former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado. He is a household name in his state, known by 94% of voters, and enjoys strong support with 76% saying they would vote for him. Yet, his national profile is minimal, with 54% to 73% of voters in other states reporting they are unfamiliar with him.
The poll also highlighted the limited reach of other figures. Former deputy Cabo Daciolo is largely unknown outside of Rio de Janeiro, where 50% recognize him. The names Renan Santos and Augusto Cury registered very low recognition across all states surveyed, with between 76% and 87% of respondents saying they did not know them.
The comprehensive survey was conducted between April 21 and 28, interviewing a total of 11,646 people. The sample sizes varied by state, with the largest in São Paulo (1,650) and the smallest in Pernambuco and Pará (900 each). The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points for São Paulo and 3 percentage points for the other states, with a confidence level of 95%.
Based on reporting from g1.