The stage is set for a dramatic Europa League semi-final second leg at Villa Park in Birmingham this Thursday evening. Aston Villa hosts Nottingham Forest, needing to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first match at the City Ground. That initial encounter was a tightly contested affair, with possession split evenly at 50-50. Forest emerged victorious thanks to a 71st-minute penalty from Chris Wood, awarded after a handball by Villa defender Luke Digne.
Aston Villa's manager, Unai Emery, boasts a formidable record in this competition. He has guided his teams past the semi-final stage in five out of six attempts and is a four-time Europa League winner, claiming the trophy three consecutive times with Sevilla (2014-2016) and once with Villarreal (2021). His personal record against Nottingham Forest is also strong, having never lost to them at home.
However, the head-to-head record between Emery and Forest's current manager, Vitor Pereira, favors the Portuguese coach. In three previous meetings, Pereira has secured two wins (2-0 with Wolves and 1-0 with Forest) and one draw (1-1 in the Premier League this season). All these matches were played away from Villa Park. It's worth noting that when Villa beat Forest 3-1 at home in the Premier League back in January, Forest was managed by Sean Dyche.
Current form paints a contrasting picture. Nottingham Forest is on an impressive 10-match unbeaten run across all competitions, winning their last five, which includes a 3-1 away victory at Chelsea on May 4th. Conversely, Aston Villa has suffered three consecutive defeats: 0-1 losses at Fulham and Forest, followed by a 1-2 home loss to Tottenham. Manager Emery made seven changes for the Tottenham match, resting key players after the European setback.
Despite this recent slump, Villa's home form in this season's Europa League has been exceptional. They have won all six of their matches at Villa Park, scoring 13 goals and conceding only three, with four clean sheets. This dominant record on home soil is a critical factor for the upcoming match.
Given the need to attack and their stellar European home record, commentator Alexander Elagin believes Aston Villa has the quality to overcome the deficit and advance to the final. His specific prediction is for Aston Villa to qualify, with odds of 2.10.
Based on reporting from Чемпионат.com.
