The world's oceans are on a trajectory to set new temperature records for the month of May, a development that coincides with growing signs of the El Niño weather pattern making a powerful comeback. This warning was issued by the European climate observatory Copernicus in its latest monthly assessment.
According to the report, average sea surface temperatures, excluding polar regions, climbed in April to levels very close to the all-time record established in 2024. Samantha Burgess, the strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which oversees Copernicus, stated it is only a matter of time before new monthly records are broken. "It's just a question of days until we see record sea surface temperatures for May," she confirmed.
The data highlights a significant trend: while March is typically the warmest month for global ocean temperatures, the current trajectory suggests an unprecedented heatwave is gripping marine environments. This surge is particularly pronounced in a vast stretch of ocean from the central equatorial Pacific to the western coasts of the United States and Mexico, where marine heatwaves are reaching record intensity.
El Niño is a natural phase of the Pacific Ocean's cycle, usually beginning in the Northern Hemisphere spring. Its effects ripple across the globe in subsequent months, altering temperatures, wind patterns, and overall climate. The phenomenon can lead to starkly different outcomes for various regions; for instance, it often brings severe drought to Indonesia, while countries like Peru must brace for torrential rainfall and potential flooding.
The most recent El Niño episode occurred between 2023 and 2024. The World Meteorological Organization has now cautioned that, despite some remaining uncertainties, the probability of El Niño returning between May and July is increasing significantly. This forecast comes as its counterpart, the cooling La Niña pattern, continues to weaken.
These predictions are fundamentally based on observed sea surface temperatures in a specific zone of the Pacific Ocean. The convergence of near-record ocean heat and the anticipated return of El Niño raises concerns among scientists about the potential for amplified extreme weather events globally in the coming months.
Based on reporting from g1.