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Why Paraguay Could Be World Cup 2026's Surprise Package

Copa MundialParaguayBarranquillaSanta ClaraEstrasburgoAustraliaArgentinaColombiaBrightonManchester City

After 16 years, Paraguay are back at World Cup under Alfaro's defensive revival. Wins over Brazil and Argentina, and Enciso's flair, make them a dark horse.

Paraguay's return to the World Cup after a 16-year absence is a testament to the transformative power of a clear vision. When Gustavo Alfaro took over in August 2024, he inherited a side that had lost its identity, drifting through tournaments without defensive solidity or attacking fluency. His diagnosis was blunt and immediate: "Paraguayan DNA, intensity and clean sheets. That's what will take us to the World Cup." It wasn't just rhetoric; it was a blueprint that would redefine the Albirroja.

Alfaro, an Argentine coach famed for defensive organization, instilled a rigid 4-4-2 shape that became the team's signature. Only in high-altitude qualifiers against Ecuador and Bolivia did he occasionally shift to a back five, protecting his players from the extreme conditions. This tactical discipline yielded immediate results. In his first match in charge, a trip to Montevideo, Paraguay looked like a different team. That resilience translated into historic home victories over Brazil and Argentina, results that convinced even the most skeptical fans that the "new" Albirroja was genuine.

The road to qualification was paved with gritty away performances. Alfaro's men lost only once on the road under his guidance—narrowly to Brazil—and secured heroic draws in some of the continent's most punishing environments. In Bolivia's 4,100-meter altitude, Ecuador's 2,800-meter thin air, and the oppressive humidity of Barranquilla against Colombia, Paraguay refused to wilt. The decisive moment came with a tense 0-0 home draw against Ecuador, a result that triggered euphoria. President Santiago Peña declared a national holiday, a gesture that underscored what the achievement meant for a nation that had endured years of disappointment.

At the heart of this revival is Julio Enciso, a player whose talent borders on the sublime. Known as "La Joya" (The Jewel), Enciso's journey from a humble background—his mother a cleaner, his father a street vendor—to the Premier League was already a fairy tale. A stunning Puskás Award-worthy goal for Brighton against Manchester City announced his gifts, but injuries and managerial changes saw him lose his way. A move to Strasbourg has reignited his career, and in his grandfather's memory he now fulfills a lifelong dream. "I dedicate this to him. He's surely watching me from heaven," Enciso said, embodying the emotional core of this team.

While Enciso provides the magic, the foundation is built on the unsung heroes. Andrés Cubas, a diminutive midfielder standing just 5ft 6in, is the linchpin. Born in Argentina and once an Argentina U-20 international, Cubas promised his Paraguayan-born mother he would represent her nation if given the chance. He is not physically imposing, but his intelligence, positioning, and relentless tenacity make him indispensable. He wins duels, recycles possession, and sparks quick transitions—a quiet conductor who allows the system to hum.

Another rising force is Damián Bobadilla, a 24-year-old box-to-box midfielder now plying his trade at São Paulo. Unlike his father Aldo, a revered former goalkeeper, Damián chose the outfield, but he speaks with equal affection: "My dad didn't have a cape, but he flew from post to post." The younger Bobadilla has inherited that warrior spirit, blending physicality with calm decision-making. His emergence at Cerro Porteño and seamless adaptation to Brazilian football suggest a player ready for the global stage.

Paraguay fans, starved of World Cup action since 2010, are expected to travel in droves despite eye-watering costs. Packages including match tickets for all three group games start at $20,000—a staggering sum in a country where the average monthly wage hovers around $450. Yet the Albirroja faithful will transform the stadiums in Inglewood and Santa Clara into a sea of red, white, and blue, accompanied by the iconic chant: "La Albirroooo, la Albirroooo, la Albirroja, la Albirroooo!"

The political backdrop adds an unusual layer. Paraguay's long-standing alliance with the United States remains firm, with President Peña calling Donald Trump's re-election "a dream come true." However, Trump's offhand remark that Peña was a "young, handsome guy" before adding "I don't like young, handsome men" served as a reminder of the unpredictable dynamics that accompany global events. On the pitch, such distractions are irrelevant; Alfaro's focus is exclusively on making Paraguay the toughest out in Group B.

Alfaro, known as "El Cazador" (The Hunter) after his book "Cazadores de Utopías Imposibles," often channels philosophical wisdom. He famously quotes a maxim attributed to basketball legend Pat Riley: "If I want to build an offensive team, the first thing I have to do is work on defensive discipline, otherwise my ass is going to be out of here." That philosophy has already taken an Ecuador side to the 2022 World Cup, and now he has replicated the feat with a Paraguay team that mirrors his own gritty persona. If they can combine their defensive wall with Enciso's game-changing brilliance, another impossible utopia might just be within reach.

Based on reporting from The Guardian.