When Fifa expanded the 2026 World Cup to 48 teams, the promise was greater opportunity for nations dreaming of a first title. Only eight nations have ever lifted the men's trophy, and many of the usual heavyweights arrive in North America with significant question marks. Defending champions Argentina and 2022 finalists France remain formidable, but the newly introduced Round of 32, grueling travel, and scorching summer temperatures could conspire to produce a surprise champion. Here, we assess the leading candidates to break their duck on the sport's grandest stage.
Portugal head into the tournament as arguable frontrunners among the uninitiated. The 2016 European champions have evolved into a perennial contender, blending experience and youthful verve. This likely marks Cristiano Ronaldo's international farewell, though his path is clouded by a petulant red card against Ireland last November—he hasn't featured for the national team since. Roberto Martínez will lean on a formidable midfield axis: Vitinha, arguably the world's most complete controller, and the emergent João Neves, with Bruno Fernandes at the peak of his creativity. Defensively, Gonçalo Inácio has solidified the backline beside Rúben Dias, Nuno Mendes offers world-class thrust from full-back, and Diogo Costa provides reliability between the posts. Depth abounds, with Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix, and Bernardo Silva ready to influence games. Martínez, scarred by underachievement with Belgium's golden generation, knows this is his shot at redemption.
The Netherlands breezed through qualification with eight wins and a plus-23 goal difference, but a major blow has tempered expectations: Xavi Simons' ACL injury robs Ronald Koeman of his most unpredictable attacking threat. The Dutch remain structurally sound, with a deep reservoir of defensive and midfield talent, yet the perennial lack of a clinical No. 9 persists. A group featuring Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia will test their mettle before the knockouts, where they aim to surpass their quarter-final run from 1994—the last time the World Cup visited North America. Koeman's tactical acumen will be stretched to cover the creative void.
Morocco return with the weight of history after their dazzling run to the semi-finals in Qatar. No longer underdogs, the Atlas Lions carry a chip on their shoulder following a controversial Africa Cup of Nations saga. Manager Mohamed Ouahbi can call upon an experienced core hardened by that deep run, but the emergence of 18-year-old Ayyoub Bouaddi—approved for a national team switch after a breakthrough season at Lille—adds youthful dynamism to a midfield that craved inventiveness. They won't surprise anyone this time, but they have the structure to hurt teams again.
Senegal, too, have a point to prove after being stripped of their Afcon title. A veteran spine—Édouard Mendy (34), Kalidou Koulibaly (34), Idrissa Gueye (36), and record scorer Sadio Mané (34)—offers leadership, and younger legs are beginning to emerge. Habib Diarra, the 22-year-old midfielder, could turn heads after navigating his club-record switch from Strasbourg to Sunderland with aplomb. If the old guard's fitness holds, the Lions of Teranga possess the experience to navigate a tricky group and reach the knockout phase for the first time since 2002.
Japan are yet to advance beyond the Round of 16, yet they've earned plaudits for fearless performances in the last two tournaments. Hajime Moriyasu's side is famously organized and quick in transition, as England discovered in a 1-0 friendly defeat earlier this year. The absence of Kaoru Mitoma, recovering from a hamstring injury, deprives them of stardust, but depth across the squad—including US-born goalkeeper Zion Suzuki, who could star on familiar soil—offers hope. In a year without a clear favorite, a first quarter-final appearance is an achievable target.
The co-hosts present intriguing but unlikely cases. Canada, under Jesse Marsch, boast firepower upfront but lack midfield and defensive depth; advancing past the group stage for the first time would be a success. The United States under Mauricio Pochettino are still gelling, and a run to the last eight would cap a turbulent cycle. Mexico draw on history—both their quarter-final appearances came on home soil—and 17-year-old Gilberto Mora might announce himself as a global star. Ecuador, the best of the rest in South American qualifying behind Argentina, offer a puncher's chance with their disciplined unit.
An expanded field, faltering favourites, and a punishing schedule create a fertile environment for a new name on the trophy. Whether it's a seasoned European power like Portugal or an African trailblazer, the 2026 World Cup seems poised to deliver the unexpected. Based on reporting from The Guardian.